FairySwap Prediction Market

It's time to place your bet.

Fairyswap's Prediction Market is a new product that we still consider to be in beta.

Once you make a bet, you cannot change or withdraw it. Please accept the following Terms and Agreements before using the Fairyswap Prediction Market. I understand that I am using this product at my own risk. Any losses incurred due to my actions are my own responsibilities. I understand that this product is still in beta. I am participating at my own risk.

What is a prediction market?

Prediction markets are markets where contracts that are contingent on the occurrence of events in the future can be traded. In simpler terms, prediction markets are marketplaces where participants trade on future outcomes about particular topics. Think of the stock market or crypto market, but instead dealing with events.

The market prices generated from these contracts can be understood as a kind of collective prediction among market participants. These prices are based on the individual expectations and willingness of investors to put their money on the line for those expectations. These contracts are similar to bets on uncertain events, and prediction markets are also known as betting markets.

They are used to bet on a variety of instances and circumstances, from the outcome of presidential elections to the results of sporting events. Prediction markets depend on scale; the more individuals participate in the market, the more data there is, and the more effective they become.

Traditional Prediction Market

Prediction markets are typically binary, offering two fungible assets for a given market (think “Yes” or “No”). These assets trade between 0% and 100% (think $0 to $1), with the current market price representing the crowd consensus.

When a forecasted event occurs, traders who purchased shares of the correct outcome are paid $1 for each share that they owned. Similar to long-established public equities markets, the primary incentive for participants in prediction markets is profit, while the byproduct of their forecasting activity is information.

Decentralized Prediction Market

A DPM is, in essence, a set of smart contracts that say who gets paid, how much gets paid, and under what conditions. For instance, Alice gets paid 100 dollars if it rains tomorrow. Decentralized prediction markets use smart contracts to eliminate the need for a central party or single operator to bring two parties together. Many of these DeFi markets use quadratic voting, allowing market participants to allocate more votes toward a particular contract if they feel strongly about it.

Decentralized Prediction Markets (DPMs) let anyone, anywhere, anytime, trade on and create markets on any outcome. DPMs not only open up participation in prediction markets themselves but speculation in general.

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